Estimate of Components Reliability and Maintenance Strategies Impact on Trains Delay

In this paper the authors present a procedure for estimating the impact of design choices, dealing with subsystems architecture, basic components reliability performances or maintenance policies, on the service quality provided by a railway or metro system. The procedure is based on the use of an innovative modular simulator, developed by the authors. Through a Monte Carlo approach and a suitable post-processing of the results of the simulated samples, the tool provides the user with a set of indicators for estimating the service quality and the effectiveness of different traffic and fleet management policies, as well as maintenance strategies, in both rated and degraded operating conditions.